Saudi Arabia’s repeated insistence on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state as a precondition for normalization continues to block the most viable path for new accessions, reinforced by Riyadh’s pivot toward alternative security partnerships with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt. Ongoing regional frictions, including the aftermath of Israel-Iran hostilities and Gulf states’ concerns over sovereignty and escalation risks, have further stalled momentum despite U.S. diplomatic pressure and Trump administration calls for expansion. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 entry and Somaliland’s pledge marked the last formal steps, with no comparable developments since; Syria and Lebanon have signaled reluctance tied to distinct bilateral disputes. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, these structural barriers underpin trader consensus against additional signatories.