Ukrainian forces continue long-range strikes on Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including Iskander systems, radars, and airfields in early May 2026, yet these operations remain attritional rather than enabling ground advances toward full territorial recapture. With the June 30, 2026 resolution date only weeks away, Russian defensive fortifications, supply lines across the Kerch Bridge, and control of the peninsula show no signs of imminent collapse. Trader consensus at 98.7% for no reflects this timeline mismatch and the absence of major Ukrainian ground offensives near Crimean borders. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt Russian withdrawal prompted by broader battlefield setbacks or a sudden diplomatic agreement, though both remain low-probability events given entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या यूक्रेन 30 जून, 2026 तक क्रीमियाई क्षेत्र पर फिर से कब्जा कर लेगा?
क्या यूक्रेन 30 जून, 2026 तक क्रीमियाई क्षेत्र पर फिर से कब्जा कर लेगा?
हाँ
$658,142 वॉल्यूम
$658,142 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$658,142 वॉल्यूम
$658,142 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces continue long-range strikes on Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including Iskander systems, radars, and airfields in early May 2026, yet these operations remain attritional rather than enabling ground advances toward full territorial recapture. With the June 30, 2026 resolution date only weeks away, Russian defensive fortifications, supply lines across the Kerch Bridge, and control of the peninsula show no signs of imminent collapse. Trader consensus at 98.7% for no reflects this timeline mismatch and the absence of major Ukrainian ground offensives near Crimean borders. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt Russian withdrawal prompted by broader battlefield setbacks or a sudden diplomatic agreement, though both remain low-probability events given entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$658,142समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces continue long-range strikes on Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including Iskander systems, radars, and airfields in early May 2026, yet these operations remain attritional rather than enabling ground advances toward full territorial recapture. With the June 30, 2026 resolution date only weeks away, Russian defensive fortifications, supply lines across the Kerch Bridge, and control of the peninsula show no signs of imminent collapse. Trader consensus at 98.7% for no reflects this timeline mismatch and the absence of major Ukrainian ground offensives near Crimean borders. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt Russian withdrawal prompted by broader battlefield setbacks or a sudden diplomatic agreement, though both remain low-probability events given entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$658,142समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces continue long-range strikes on Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including Iskander systems, radars, and airfields in early May 2026, yet these operations remain attritional rather than enabling ground advances toward full territorial recapture. With the June 30, 2026 resolution date only weeks away, Russian defensive fortifications, supply lines across the Kerch Bridge, and control of the peninsula show no signs of imminent collapse. Trader consensus at 98.7% for no reflects this timeline mismatch and the absence of major Ukrainian ground offensives near Crimean borders. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt Russian withdrawal prompted by broader battlefield setbacks or a sudden diplomatic agreement, though both remain low-probability events given entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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