Russian forces have concentrated significant manpower, estimated around 150,000 troops, in the Zaporizhzhia sector to attempt encirclement of Orikhiv from eastern and western flanks while conducting small-scale infantry infiltrations. Ukrainian units have repelled these probes, retained control of the town, and achieved local advances southeast of Orikhiv, including clearing Novoandriivka and portions of Mala Tokmachka as of early November 2026. Russian commands previously targeted capture by late October without establishing a foothold, and recent reports indicate stalled momentum with no confirmed operational breakthroughs. Ukrainian defensive actions and counter-moves directly influence trader assessments of whether Russian forces can achieve a breakthrough within any specified resolution window.