Recent statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicate that Russia is exploring options to launch operations against NATO territory from Belarus, including potential strikes toward the Suwalki Gap or Baltic states. Dutch and U.S. intelligence assessments note that Moscow has most of its combat power committed to Ukraine, making a conventional attack on NATO unlikely while hostilities continue there. Analysts highlight Russia's ongoing hybrid operations, such as sabotage and airspace probes, alongside information campaigns framing NATO as the aggressor near Kaliningrad. Western officials expect Russia to rebalance forces and test alliance cohesion once the Ukraine war ends, with upcoming NATO exercises and eastern flank reinforcements serving as key variables that could shape escalation risks in the coming months.