Russia’s ongoing peace negotiations with U.S. envoys, including the November 10-11 Abu Dhabi talks, center on Moscow’s revived 2021 demands for NATO to withdraw forces and bases to 1997 lines, exclude post-1997 members from alliance activities, and limit nuclear sharing. These positions, presented as an opening stance, link any Ukraine settlement to broader European security changes while Russia sustains its military campaign in Donbas. Western assessments note a low but increasing risk of limited hybrid provocations or border incidents in the Baltics and Suwałki corridor, though NATO commanders report no imminent conventional threat and emphasize rapid collective response capabilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and Russia’s resource commitments in Ukraine continue to shape trader views on the low near-term probability of a direct invasion of alliance territory.