Ongoing US-mediated trilateral talks between Russian, Ukrainian, and American officials in Abu Dhabi represent the latest diplomatic effort, yet remain at the technical level without direct participation by Vladimir Putin or Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Positions diverge sharply on territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and ceasefire sequencing, with Moscow favoring comprehensive agreements before any leaders’ summit and Kyiv insisting on neutral venues plus robust protections. These persistent gaps, combined with battlefield dynamics and the absence of scheduled bilateral meetings, underpin trader consensus favoring no Putin-Zelenskyy encounter by late 2027. Venues such as the UAE, Turkey, or Switzerland register minimal probabilities, as recent activity shows incremental negotiation rather than rapid escalation to a summit. Scheduled follow-up sessions could alter timelines if flexibility emerges on core issues.