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राजनीति·पुतिन

रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?

icon for रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
राजनीति·पुतिन

रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?

$6,231,977 वॉल्यूम

30 सित, 2026
Polymarket

$6,231,977 वॉल्यूम

Polymarket

30 सितंबर, 2026

$159,521 वॉल्यूम

1%

31 दिसंबर, 2026

$120,130 वॉल्यूम

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains its moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing while conditioning any resumption on similar U.S. action, a stance reinforced by President Putin's public directives and Russia's 2023 CTBT de-ratification. Recent strategic nuclear forces exercises, including ICBM launches and submarine drills simulating authorization procedures, along with tests of delivery systems like Sarmat and Avangard, have sustained attention but produced no confirmed nuclear detonations. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates, reflecting Russia's emphasis on parity, ongoing diplomatic signaling, and absence of verified explosive activity at sites such as Novaya Zemlya. Scheduled military drills or shifts in U.S. testing policy within the resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$6,231,977
समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

रिज़ॉल्वर

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains its moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing while conditioning any resumption on similar U.S. action, a stance reinforced by President Putin's public directives and Russia's 2023 CTBT de-ratification. Recent strategic nuclear forces exercises, including ICBM launches and submarine drills simulating authorization procedures, along with tests of delivery systems like Sarmat and Avangard, have sustained attention but produced no confirmed nuclear detonations. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates, reflecting Russia's emphasis on parity, ongoing diplomatic signaling, and absence of verified explosive activity at sites such as Novaya Zemlya. Scheduled military drills or shifts in U.S. testing policy within the resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$6,231,977
समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

रिज़ॉल्वर

0x65070BE91...

संबंधित

icon for क्या अमेरिका 31 दिसंबर 2026 तक परमाणु हथियार का परीक्षण करेगा?

क्या अमेरिका 31 दिसंबर 2026 तक परमाणु हथियार का परीक्षण करेगा?

5%
हाँ
icon for क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा?

क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा?

5%
हाँ
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Russia coup attempt in 2026?

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