Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, followed by additional strikes into spring 2026, have damaged key infrastructure and buried highly enriched uranium stockpiles, pushing back Iran's estimated timeline for weaponization to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Ongoing diplomatic talks, IAEA monitoring of limited activity, and satellite evidence of reconstruction efforts at hardened or underground locations like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2 through mid-2026 further indicate that Tehran lacks the immediate capacity or political window for a nuclear test before the end of 2026. This sustained degradation underpins traders' 95.5% implied probability on "No." Even so, accelerated rebuilding aided by foreign suppliers, a shift in Iranian doctrine amid negotiations, or undetected advances at secondary facilities could still alter the short remaining timeline before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
5% संभावना
$246,407 वॉल्यूम
$246,407 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
5% संभावना
$246,407 वॉल्यूम
$246,407 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, followed by additional strikes into spring 2026, have damaged key infrastructure and buried highly enriched uranium stockpiles, pushing back Iran's estimated timeline for weaponization to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Ongoing diplomatic talks, IAEA monitoring of limited activity, and satellite evidence of reconstruction efforts at hardened or underground locations like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2 through mid-2026 further indicate that Tehran lacks the immediate capacity or political window for a nuclear test before the end of 2026. This sustained degradation underpins traders' 95.5% implied probability on "No." Even so, accelerated rebuilding aided by foreign suppliers, a shift in Iranian doctrine amid negotiations, or undetected advances at secondary facilities could still alter the short remaining timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$246,407समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, followed by additional strikes into spring 2026, have damaged key infrastructure and buried highly enriched uranium stockpiles, pushing back Iran's estimated timeline for weaponization to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Ongoing diplomatic talks, IAEA monitoring of limited activity, and satellite evidence of reconstruction efforts at hardened or underground locations like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2 through mid-2026 further indicate that Tehran lacks the immediate capacity or political window for a nuclear test before the end of 2026. This sustained degradation underpins traders' 95.5% implied probability on "No." Even so, accelerated rebuilding aided by foreign suppliers, a shift in Iranian doctrine amid negotiations, or undetected advances at secondary facilities could still alter the short remaining timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$246,407समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, followed by additional strikes into spring 2026, have damaged key infrastructure and buried highly enriched uranium stockpiles, pushing back Iran's estimated timeline for weaponization to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Ongoing diplomatic talks, IAEA monitoring of limited activity, and satellite evidence of reconstruction efforts at hardened or underground locations like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2 through mid-2026 further indicate that Tehran lacks the immediate capacity or political window for a nuclear test before the end of 2026. This sustained degradation underpins traders' 95.5% implied probability on "No." Even so, accelerated rebuilding aided by foreign suppliers, a shift in Iranian doctrine amid negotiations, or undetected advances at secondary facilities could still alter the short remaining timeline before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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