Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$218,747 वॉल्यूम
$218,747 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
$218,747 वॉल्यूम
$218,747 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$218,747समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$218,747समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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