Traders reflect a 96.5% implied probability against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by sustained IAEA monitoring, enrichment limits under existing agreements, and layered sanctions that constrain centrifuge deployment and fissile material production. Technical assessments continue to show Iran operating below weapons-grade thresholds, with economic pressures and diplomatic channels limiting rapid breakout capacity. Israeli security measures and coordinated U.S. policy further reinforce deterrence without direct confrontation. While consensus remains firm, credible shifts could stem from undetected site expansions, sudden policy reversals by key actors, or accelerated technical milestones within the resolution window.