The near-certain trader consensus against a Putin-Zelenskyy handshake by June 30 reflects the absence of any scheduled bilateral summit or direct diplomatic channel between the two leaders amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both sides continue to hold incompatible positions on territorial control, security arrangements, and cease-fire terms, with negotiations limited to indirect formats involving third-party intermediaries rather than personal engagement. No official statements from either capital have signaled imminent in-person talks in the remaining weeks, and recent military developments have reinforced rather than eased the impasse. A late-stage breakthrough via back-channel diplomacy or sudden external mediation remains theoretically possible but would require rapid shifts in stated red lines that have shown no movement in recent months.