Mounting pressure on Keir Starmer after Labour's heavy losses in recent local elections has driven trader consensus toward Andy Burnham as the most likely next prime minister by 2026. The Greater Manchester mayor's announcement of plans to contest the Makerfield by-election, following Labour's decision to clear his path back to Parliament, has strengthened his positioning among party members, where recent polls show him leading potential rivals by wide margins. Wes Streeting's cabinet resignation and reported readiness for a leadership bid, alongside Angela Rayner's public support for Burnham, have added to the sense of an imminent contest, though Starmer continues to signal resistance and the by-election outcome remains uncertain. This dynamic leaves room for shifts depending on parliamentary maneuvering and any further resignations in the coming weeks.