Traders assign Claude Opus 5 Max a leading 62% implied probability for the top AI model on August 24 due to its recent release and strong performance on key benchmarks for reasoning and multimodal tasks. Anthropic's latest large language model family has demonstrated clear gains over prior versions in developer evaluations and user adoption metrics, positioning the Max variant ahead of variants like Opus 5 High. Competitive pressure from models such as Qwen3.8 Max remains limited by narrower capability gaps reported in independent testing, while "Other" at 15% reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential late-August updates from labs like OpenAI or Google. Upcoming earnings and any new capability demos could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाclaude-opus-5-max 76%
अन्य 15%
claude-opus-5-high 10%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 4%
नया
नया
24 अग, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
76%
अन्य
15%
claude-opus-5-high
10%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
4%
qwen3.8-max
4%
claude-opus-5-max 76%
अन्य 15%
claude-opus-5-high 10%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 4%
नया
नया
24 अग, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$61 वॉल्यूम
76%
अन्य
$0 वॉल्यूम
15%
claude-opus-5-high
$70 वॉल्यूम
10%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$47 वॉल्यूम
4%
qwen3.8-max
$0 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Claude Opus 5 Max a leading 62% implied probability for the top AI model on August 24 due to its recent release and strong performance on key benchmarks for reasoning and multimodal tasks. Anthropic's latest large language model family has demonstrated clear gains over prior versions in developer evaluations and user adoption metrics, positioning the Max variant ahead of variants like Opus 5 High. Competitive pressure from models such as Qwen3.8 Max remains limited by narrower capability gaps reported in independent testing, while "Other" at 15% reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential late-August updates from labs like OpenAI or Google. Upcoming earnings and any new capability demos could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$178समाप्ति तिथि
24 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Claude Opus 5 Max a leading 62% implied probability for the top AI model on August 24 due to its recent release and strong performance on key benchmarks for reasoning and multimodal tasks. Anthropic's latest large language model family has demonstrated clear gains over prior versions in developer evaluations and user adoption metrics, positioning the Max variant ahead of variants like Opus 5 High. Competitive pressure from models such as Qwen3.8 Max remains limited by narrower capability gaps reported in independent testing, while "Other" at 15% reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential late-August updates from labs like OpenAI or Google. Upcoming earnings and any new capability demos could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$178समाप्ति तिथि
24 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Claude Opus 5 Max a leading 62% implied probability for the top AI model on August 24 due to its recent release and strong performance on key benchmarks for reasoning and multimodal tasks. Anthropic's latest large language model family has demonstrated clear gains over prior versions in developer evaluations and user adoption metrics, positioning the Max variant ahead of variants like Opus 5 High. Competitive pressure from models such as Qwen3.8 Max remains limited by narrower capability gaps reported in independent testing, while "Other" at 15% reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential late-August updates from labs like OpenAI or Google. Upcoming earnings and any new capability demos could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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