The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,032 वॉल्यूम
$13,032 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$13,032 वॉल्यूम
$13,032 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 वॉल्यूम
96%
Republican Party
$7,117 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,032समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$13,032समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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