California's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Democratic tilt following Proposition 50 redistricting, which incorporated additional conservative-leaning counties yet preserved an overall partisan edge reflected in recent statewide results. Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term after 28 years in office, holds strong advantages in name recognition, endorsements from state party leaders, and fundraising alongside primary challenger Eric Jones. California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, is expected to advance two Democrats against a splintered Republican field of multiple candidates, ensuring a general-election matchup on November 3 that favors the Democratic nominee. This structural setup and the absence of competitive Republican polling underpin the current trader consensus, though an unusually consolidated GOP effort or turnout surge could narrow the margin in the final weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$625 वॉल्यूम
92%
Republican Party
$1,381 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Democratic tilt following Proposition 50 redistricting, which incorporated additional conservative-leaning counties yet preserved an overall partisan edge reflected in recent statewide results. Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term after 28 years in office, holds strong advantages in name recognition, endorsements from state party leaders, and fundraising alongside primary challenger Eric Jones. California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, is expected to advance two Democrats against a splintered Republican field of multiple candidates, ensuring a general-election matchup on November 3 that favors the Democratic nominee. This structural setup and the absence of competitive Republican polling underpin the current trader consensus, though an unusually consolidated GOP effort or turnout surge could narrow the margin in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,006समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Democratic tilt following Proposition 50 redistricting, which incorporated additional conservative-leaning counties yet preserved an overall partisan edge reflected in recent statewide results. Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term after 28 years in office, holds strong advantages in name recognition, endorsements from state party leaders, and fundraising alongside primary challenger Eric Jones. California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, is expected to advance two Democrats against a splintered Republican field of multiple candidates, ensuring a general-election matchup on November 3 that favors the Democratic nominee. This structural setup and the absence of competitive Republican polling underpin the current trader consensus, though an unusually consolidated GOP effort or turnout surge could narrow the margin in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$2,006समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district maintains a clear Democratic tilt following Proposition 50 redistricting, which incorporated additional conservative-leaning counties yet preserved an overall partisan edge reflected in recent statewide results. Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term after 28 years in office, holds strong advantages in name recognition, endorsements from state party leaders, and fundraising alongside primary challenger Eric Jones. California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, is expected to advance two Democrats against a splintered Republican field of multiple candidates, ensuring a general-election matchup on November 3 that favors the Democratic nominee. This structural setup and the absence of competitive Republican polling underpin the current trader consensus, though an unusually consolidated GOP effort or turnout surge could narrow the margin in the final weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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