Recent polling in both open Democratic Senate seats shows modest leads for the Democratic nominees—Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers by roughly 3–7 points in Michigan aggregates, and Chris Pappas ahead of John Sununu by similar margins in New Hampshire. Michigan’s race has stabilized after El-Sayed consolidated support following a divisive primary, with consistent single-digit gaps across multiple September surveys. New Hampshire exhibits greater poll volatility, including recent ties or narrow Sununu edges in some GOP-leaning samples, alongside Cook Political Report’s shift to toss-up status and emphasis on independent voters. Traders appear to view Michigan’s narrower variance and steadier positioning as increasing the probability it finishes with the smaller margin on Election Day.