Recent Middle East energy price pressures and upward revisions to euro area inflation projections have positioned a further ECB tightening as the consensus outcome for December 2026. The September 10 hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, accompanied by staff forecasts showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and remaining above target into 2027, prompted banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays to forecast an additional 25-basis-point increase at the December 17 meeting. Resilient growth data and limited evidence of second-round effects so far support the 58.5% probability for that move, while the 30% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether the shock will persist or ease before year-end data arrives. Smaller probabilities for larger shifts or cuts align with the data-dependent stance and risks of geopolitical de-escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की बढ़ोतरी 58%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 29%
50+ बेसिस अंक की वृद्धि 5%
50 से अधिक bps की कटौती 3.0%
नया
$11,639 वॉल्यूम
नया
$11,639 वॉल्यूम
17 दिस, 2026
50 से अधिक bps की कटौती
3%
25 बिप्स की कटौती
8%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
29%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की बढ़ोतरी
58%
50+ बेसिस अंक की वृद्धि
5%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की बढ़ोतरी 58%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 29%
50+ बेसिस अंक की वृद्धि 5%
50 से अधिक bps की कटौती 3.0%
नया
$11,639 वॉल्यूम
नया
$11,639 वॉल्यूम
17 दिस, 2026
50 से अधिक bps की कटौती
$1,374 वॉल्यूम
3%
25 बिप्स की कटौती
$1,164 वॉल्यूम
8%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1,776 वॉल्यूम
29%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की बढ़ोतरी
$6,033 वॉल्यूम
58%
50+ बेसिस अंक की वृद्धि
$1,293 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East energy price pressures and upward revisions to euro area inflation projections have positioned a further ECB tightening as the consensus outcome for December 2026. The September 10 hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, accompanied by staff forecasts showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and remaining above target into 2027, prompted banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays to forecast an additional 25-basis-point increase at the December 17 meeting. Resilient growth data and limited evidence of second-round effects so far support the 58.5% probability for that move, while the 30% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether the shock will persist or ease before year-end data arrives. Smaller probabilities for larger shifts or cuts align with the data-dependent stance and risks of geopolitical de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,639समाप्ति तिथि
17 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East energy price pressures and upward revisions to euro area inflation projections have positioned a further ECB tightening as the consensus outcome for December 2026. The September 10 hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, accompanied by staff forecasts showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and remaining above target into 2027, prompted banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays to forecast an additional 25-basis-point increase at the December 17 meeting. Resilient growth data and limited evidence of second-round effects so far support the 58.5% probability for that move, while the 30% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether the shock will persist or ease before year-end data arrives. Smaller probabilities for larger shifts or cuts align with the data-dependent stance and risks of geopolitical de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$11,639समाप्ति तिथि
17 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy price pressures and upward revisions to euro area inflation projections have positioned a further ECB tightening as the consensus outcome for December 2026. The September 10 hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, accompanied by staff forecasts showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and remaining above target into 2027, prompted banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays to forecast an additional 25-basis-point increase at the December 17 meeting. Resilient growth data and limited evidence of second-round effects so far support the 58.5% probability for that move, while the 30% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether the shock will persist or ease before year-end data arrives. Smaller probabilities for larger shifts or cuts align with the data-dependent stance and risks of geopolitical de-escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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