The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.50% following the September 2026 hike, with the October meeting resulting in a hold amid rising energy prices from Middle East tensions and inflation remaining above target. Professional forecasters and market pricing from €STR futures point to a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase at the December 17, 2026 meeting, lifting the rate to 2.75%, after which surveys show a median expectation of an extended pause through 2027. Incoming data on inflation, wages, and growth, combined with the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of significant second-round effects so far, underpin the 86% trader consensus on no further change by the February 4, 2027 meeting. Limited probabilities for additional tightening or easing reflect uncertainty over energy pass-through and economic resilience.