Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow lead for no change in ECB deposit facility rate (53.5% implied probability) at the July 2026 meeting, closely trailed by a 25 basis point increase (39.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks tied to the Iran war and spiking oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, its seventh consecutive pause, with President Lagarde emphasizing data-dependence amid Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and stagflation risks. The May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects gradual hikes to 2.3% by year-end, reversing prior flat expectations. Key catalysts include June inflation data and the pivotal mid-June policy meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाECB Interest Rates: July 2026
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change 53%
25 bps Increase 38%
50+ bps decrease 3.4%
25 bps decrease 2.9%
नया
नया
23 जुल, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
53%
25 bps Increase
38%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 53%
25 bps Increase 38%
50+ bps decrease 3.4%
25 bps decrease 2.9%
नया
नया
23 जुल, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174 वॉल्यूम
3%
25 bps decrease
$90 वॉल्यूम
3%
No change
$32 वॉल्यूम
53%
25 bps Increase
$67 वॉल्यूम
38%
50+ bps increase
$156 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow lead for no change in ECB deposit facility rate (53.5% implied probability) at the July 2026 meeting, closely trailed by a 25 basis point increase (39.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks tied to the Iran war and spiking oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, its seventh consecutive pause, with President Lagarde emphasizing data-dependence amid Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and stagflation risks. The May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects gradual hikes to 2.3% by year-end, reversing prior flat expectations. Key catalysts include June inflation data and the pivotal mid-June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$519समाप्ति तिथि
23 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow lead for no change in ECB deposit facility rate (53.5% implied probability) at the July 2026 meeting, closely trailed by a 25 basis point increase (39.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks tied to the Iran war and spiking oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, its seventh consecutive pause, with President Lagarde emphasizing data-dependence amid Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and stagflation risks. The May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects gradual hikes to 2.3% by year-end, reversing prior flat expectations. Key catalysts include June inflation data and the pivotal mid-June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$519समाप्ति तिथि
23 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow lead for no change in ECB deposit facility rate (53.5% implied probability) at the July 2026 meeting, closely trailed by a 25 basis point increase (39.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty from surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks tied to the Iran war and spiking oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, its seventh consecutive pause, with President Lagarde emphasizing data-dependence amid Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and stagflation risks. The May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects gradual hikes to 2.3% by year-end, reversing prior flat expectations. Key catalysts include June inflation data and the pivotal mid-June policy meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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