The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
8% संभावना
$164,069 वॉल्यूम
$164,069 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
8% संभावना
$164,069 वॉल्यूम
$164,069 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$164,069समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
वॉल्यूम
$164,069समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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