Byron Donalds secured Florida’s open gubernatorial seat on November 3 with 50.01% of the vote to Democrat David Jolly’s 48.72%, producing a 1.29-point margin consistent with the market’s near-certain pricing on a 0-3% Republican win. Pre-election polling averages placed Donalds ahead by roughly four points in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994; Trump’s endorsement helped consolidate Republican primary support while Jolly, a former GOP congressman, mounted a stronger-than-expected challenge that narrowed the final spread. Certification remains underway with minor additional ballots expected, yet the current lead exceeds Florida’s automatic-recount threshold. Late adjustments from outstanding counties or legal challenges could theoretically alter the precise margin, though they are unlikely to push the outcome outside the 0-3% band.