Abdul El-Sayed’s confirmed 52.5% to 45.5% general election result against Mike Rogers has locked in a roughly 7-point Democratic margin, aligning directly with the 6-9% outcome priced at 99.2%. Vote tabulation across Michigan’s 83 counties, now at 97-99% reporting, produced consistent statewide totals with no material shifts in the final days. Strong Democratic performance in Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties, combined with improved margins in several Macomb and Kent precincts relative to 2024, drove the spread. Traders assign negligible probability to the remaining bins because outstanding ballots are too few to alter the result outside the 6-9% range. Recounts or certification disputes remain possible but would require unprecedented discrepancies to move the margin beyond that interval.