Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening weekend and $2.52 billion worldwide gross through mid-November have locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability. The July 31 release delivered the biggest debut in history, exceptional legs, and strong international holds, outpacing every other 2026 title by more than $700 million and establishing it as the year's clear box office leader. Avengers: Doomsday's December 18 bow carries the only realistic path to an upset, yet its presales and holiday window would need an unprecedented surge to close the gap before year-end. Other releases like Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey sit well behind with no remaining momentum to challenge the frontrunner.