Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering July 31 release has locked in overwhelming trader consensus, already surpassing $2.5 billion worldwide with the biggest domestic opening ever and the all-time U.S. gross record previously held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Its legs, international strength, and cultural momentum created an insurmountable lead by early November. Avengers: Doomsday sits a distant second on strong presales and December 18 timing, yet the compressed window after its debut limits any realistic chance of overtaking the frontrunner. The market’s 89.5% implied probability for Spider-Man reflects verified box-office data and historical patterns, while lower-probability titles like The Odyssey and Toy Story 5 trail by hundreds of millions with no catalysts left to close the gap.