**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHighest temperature in Austin on July 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 4?
98-99°F 54%
96-97°F 31%
94-95°F 10%
100-101°F 8%
नया
$17,765 वॉल्यूम
नया
$17,765 वॉल्यूम
4 जुल, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
31%
98-99°F
54%
100-101°F
8%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 54%
96-97°F 31%
94-95°F 10%
100-101°F 8%
नया
$17,765 वॉल्यूम
नया
$17,765 वॉल्यूम
4 जुल, 2026
89°F or below
$1,218 वॉल्यूम
<1%
90-91°F
$733 वॉल्यूम
<1%
92-93°F
$1,026 वॉल्यूम
1%
94-95°F
$1,713 वॉल्यूम
10%
96-97°F
$1,958 वॉल्यूम
31%
98-99°F
$6,609 वॉल्यूम
54%
100-101°F
$1,322 वॉल्यूम
8%
102-103°F
$681 वॉल्यूम
1%
104-105°F
$872 वॉल्यूम
<1%
106-107°F
$1,093 वॉल्यूम
<1%
108°F or higher
$567 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,765समाप्ति तिथि
4 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$17,765समाप्ति तिथि
4 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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