**Trader consensus at 100% on 26°C as the daily maximum in Chengdu on October 4, 2026, reflects real-time surface observations confirming this peak under predominantly overcast skies with light variable winds.** Official meteorological data align with model guidance showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 21–22°C to a midday or afternoon high of 26°C, consistent with seasonal October norms around 20–25°C but elevated by residual warmth and minimal cloud cooling. This outcome sits well within historical ranges for the Sichuan Basin, where autumn highs rarely exceed 28°C without strong subsidence or clear skies. The only realistic challenge would involve a post-observation revision by the China Meteorological Administration or an unreported microscale heat spike, both low-probability events given converging station reports and the market’s skin-in-the-game certainty.