Recent ensemble forecasts and observational trends indicate a daytime high in Chongqing on October 2 most likely near 21–22°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered showers linked to the post-summer monsoon transition and regional low-pressure influences during China’s National Day period. Multiple global and regional models diverge modestly on exact peak values due to uncertainties in timing of any clearing or localized convective bursts, with some runs favoring 19–20°C under heavier rain and others reaching 23–25°C if breaks allow greater insolation. Historical early-October baselines around 22–24°C provide context, yet current humidity, reduced radiative heating from overcast skies, and steering patterns support the market’s tight clustering around the lower end of that range. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance expected within 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.