Recent official forecasts from GFS-based models indicate Munich will reach a daytime high near 24–25°C on September 30 under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dry conditions with minimal afternoon heating. This places temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average high of 17.3°C yet below the date’s all-time record of 26.5°C, creating tight market-implied odds between 24°C and 25°C. Minor differences in model resolution for peak solar insolation and boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split, while lower probabilities for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming without a shift in steering patterns or reduced cloud cover. Updated short-range guidance later today will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.