Current forecasts for Miami on October 1 indicate a high near 82–84°F amid scattered to likely thunderstorms driven by easterly winds and abundant tropical moisture, well below the 88°F historical average. Persistent cloud cover and convective rainfall will reduce insolation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima, while model consensus shows limited window for stronger heating if storms remain delayed or localized. Trader positioning clusters on 84–87°F because small shifts in storm timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could add or subtract a few degrees, with the tight spread between the top two bins reflecting this forecast sensitivity rather than any single dominant signal. Updated National Weather Service or NHC guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.