Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Denver on October 1, 2026, highlight a cold front passage on September 30 that introduces northerly flow and scattered showers, followed by partial clearing. This setup creates uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling: clear skies would allow temperatures to drop toward the mid-40s or lower, while lingering cloud cover or higher dew points could limit the decline. Historical climatology places the average low near 43°F, with model ensembles showing a narrow range centered around 46–48°F. The closely matched market odds between sub-43°F and 62°F+ outcomes reflect trader focus on the precise timing of clearing and wind speeds, which will determine whether minimum temperatures fall below or remain well above typical early-October values. Final NWS forecast updates and next model runs will likely resolve much of the spread.