Recent National Weather Service and private forecast model runs show Miami highs on August 31 centered in the upper 80s to low 90s, with afternoon thunderstorm development expected to limit peak readings through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Typical late-August steering patterns feature light easterly flow and high boundary-layer moisture that favors scattered convection after midday, keeping surface temperatures from climbing much above 91–92 °F unless storms are delayed. Historical climatology places the August 31 average high near 90 °F, so current consensus aligns closely with the market’s heaviest volume on 90–91 °F (45.5 %) and 92–93 °F (30 %). Updated model guidance and any shifts in convective timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could move implied probabilities toward the 88–89 °F or 94–95 °F bins.