The elevated early-season tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with over 530 confirmed reports already recorded by the Storm Prediction Center, is the primary driver behind the 81.5% market-implied probability for a 1250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term average of roughly 1,200 U.S. tornadoes per year and reflects frequent periods of strong atmospheric instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture interacting with mid-latitude systems, as highlighted in recent SPC convective outlooks. Forecasters note a front-loaded pattern this spring, with above-normal severe weather days through April, though model consensus on ENSO influences and peak-season steering remains variable. Continued monitoring of May–June outbreaks and official NOAA tallies will refine whether the current trajectory sustains toward the upper end of historical ranges.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
1250+ 82%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,202 वॉल्यूम
$72,202 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
10%
1250+
82%
1250+ 82%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,202 वॉल्यूम
$72,202 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
$22,427 वॉल्यूम
3%
950–999
$2,966 वॉल्यूम
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 वॉल्यूम
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 वॉल्यूम
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 वॉल्यूम
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 वॉल्यूम
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 वॉल्यूम
10%
1250+
$16,681 वॉल्यूम
82%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The elevated early-season tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with over 530 confirmed reports already recorded by the Storm Prediction Center, is the primary driver behind the 81.5% market-implied probability for a 1250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term average of roughly 1,200 U.S. tornadoes per year and reflects frequent periods of strong atmospheric instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture interacting with mid-latitude systems, as highlighted in recent SPC convective outlooks. Forecasters note a front-loaded pattern this spring, with above-normal severe weather days through April, though model consensus on ENSO influences and peak-season steering remains variable. Continued monitoring of May–June outbreaks and official NOAA tallies will refine whether the current trajectory sustains toward the upper end of historical ranges.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$72,202समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The elevated early-season tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with over 530 confirmed reports already recorded by the Storm Prediction Center, is the primary driver behind the 81.5% market-implied probability for a 1250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term average of roughly 1,200 U.S. tornadoes per year and reflects frequent periods of strong atmospheric instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture interacting with mid-latitude systems, as highlighted in recent SPC convective outlooks. Forecasters note a front-loaded pattern this spring, with above-normal severe weather days through April, though model consensus on ENSO influences and peak-season steering remains variable. Continued monitoring of May–June outbreaks and official NOAA tallies will refine whether the current trajectory sustains toward the upper end of historical ranges.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$72,202समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The elevated early-season tornado activity through mid-May 2026, with over 530 confirmed reports already recorded by the Storm Prediction Center, is the primary driver behind the 81.5% market-implied probability for a 1250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term average of roughly 1,200 U.S. tornadoes per year and reflects frequent periods of strong atmospheric instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture interacting with mid-latitude systems, as highlighted in recent SPC convective outlooks. Forecasters note a front-loaded pattern this spring, with above-normal severe weather days through April, though model consensus on ENSO influences and peak-season steering remains variable. Continued monitoring of May–June outbreaks and official NOAA tallies will refine whether the current trajectory sustains toward the upper end of historical ranges.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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