Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a mild overnight period for Istanbul on October 2, with minimum temperatures likely near 15–17°C amid persistent northeasterly winds of 20–35 km/h and surface pressure around 1023 hPa. These conditions promote mixing that limits radiative cooling, while scattered showers and cloud cover further moderate temperature drops. Historical October minima average near 13°C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline, supporting trader emphasis on the 21°C-or-higher bin at 49% implied probability alongside the 15°C outcome near 41.5%. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences in exact wind strength or cloud timing create the tight clustering of probabilities around mid-teens values, with resolution hinging on the final observed low from official stations.