Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on October 1 will likely reach 3–5°C under northerly winds of 5–10 m/s and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High pressure (around 763–777 mmHg) supports radiative cooling after sunset, while the incoming air mass—continental polar with limited moisture—limits cloud formation that could otherwise trap heat. Historical October 1 lows average 5.3°C, with records showing occasional dips near 0°C or below under similar setups. Trader consensus clustering tightly at 4–6°C (each near 49–50% implied probability) reflects minor model disagreements on exact timing of peak cooling, wind mixing, and any residual cloud cover, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise minimum rather than a strong directional bias. New observational updates from surface stations will refine this range as the night progresses.