Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and Environment Canada consensus show Toronto's overnight low on October 11 around 13–14°C, driven by southeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover from an incoming weather system that limits radiative cooling. This setup contrasts with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 8.7°C for the date, elevating the implied probability mass across the 9–17°C range while capping chances for sub-9°C readings. Traders appear to weigh model spread and potential timing shifts in the rain shield as key variables, with the 18°C-or-higher bucket capturing residual uncertainty in warmer-air advection ahead of the frontal passage. New model runs and official NWS/Environment Canada updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.