Maryland voters will decide Question 3 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment that would limit existing state criteria for compactness, contiguity, and natural boundaries to legislative districts only, leaving congressional maps subject to no additional state constitutional standards and authorizing Supreme Court original jurisdiction over challenges. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly approved the measure during an August 2026 special session, prompting a lawsuit that blocked it from the ballot on procedural and single-subject grounds. The Maryland Supreme Court reversed that ruling on September 3, clearing the path after revising the ballot language. With Democrats holding seven of eight U.S. House seats and Republicans holding the remaining district, the closely balanced market odds reflect uncertainty over voter approval of a change that could facilitate mid-decade congressional redistricting in a state where the legislature already draws maps. Turnout patterns, campaign spending by Governor Wes Moore and party leaders, and voter views on redistricting standards remain the main variables that could shift the implied probability in either direction before Election Day.