Trader consensus implies a 90% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the historical global frequency of such great quakes—about one per year on average—and steady USGS-monitored seismicity without anomalous foreshocks, strain accumulation, or swarm activity signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. The April 20 M7.7 offshore Sanriku, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating short-term Japan Trench odds to around 1% for M8+, but it expired May 8 amid declining aftershocks, tempering risk. No M8+ events have occurred in 2026 to date, with the year's largest a M7.5 near Tonga in March; watch USGS significant earthquake catalog for real-time updates through resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
हाँ
$66,081 वॉल्यूम
$66,081 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$66,081 वॉल्यूम
$66,081 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies a 90% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the historical global frequency of such great quakes—about one per year on average—and steady USGS-monitored seismicity without anomalous foreshocks, strain accumulation, or swarm activity signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. The April 20 M7.7 offshore Sanriku, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating short-term Japan Trench odds to around 1% for M8+, but it expired May 8 amid declining aftershocks, tempering risk. No M8+ events have occurred in 2026 to date, with the year's largest a M7.5 near Tonga in March; watch USGS significant earthquake catalog for real-time updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$66,081समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies a 90% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the historical global frequency of such great quakes—about one per year on average—and steady USGS-monitored seismicity without anomalous foreshocks, strain accumulation, or swarm activity signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. The April 20 M7.7 offshore Sanriku, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating short-term Japan Trench odds to around 1% for M8+, but it expired May 8 amid declining aftershocks, tempering risk. No M8+ events have occurred in 2026 to date, with the year's largest a M7.5 near Tonga in March; watch USGS significant earthquake catalog for real-time updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$66,081समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 90% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ earthquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the historical global frequency of such great quakes—about one per year on average—and steady USGS-monitored seismicity without anomalous foreshocks, strain accumulation, or swarm activity signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. The April 20 M7.7 offshore Sanriku, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating short-term Japan Trench odds to around 1% for M8+, but it expired May 8 amid declining aftershocks, tempering risk. No M8+ events have occurred in 2026 to date, with the year's largest a M7.5 near Tonga in March; watch USGS significant earthquake catalog for real-time updates through resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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