Recent minor performance degradations in OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 large language model have kept trader sentiment tightly balanced on the number of ChatGPT outage days through May 2026, with the market assigning 40.5% implied probability to exactly two days and 35% to three. OpenAI’s status page logged quick recoveries from elevated error rates on May 11 and performance issues on May 15, delivering 99.82% uptime overall, yet isolated reports of degraded responses and file-upload problems on May 13–14 have introduced uncertainty about additional calendar days qualifying as partial or full outages. Competitive pressures from rival models and ongoing scaling of inference infrastructure remain the primary swing factors that could either stabilize service or trigger further brief disruptions before month-end.