Trader consensus places Anthropic as the strong leader for the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, with its 74.5% implied probability reflecting sustained gains in large language model reasoning, coding performance, and safety benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with top competitors. Recent model iterations have delivered measurable improvements in multi-step problem solving and reduced hallucination rates, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic will hold this position through the deadline. Google sits at 18.5% on the strength of Gemini ecosystem integrations and steady capability lifts, while OpenAI at 7.5% faces expectations of only incremental updates ahead of any major release. The next several weeks of benchmark disclosures and developer feedback represent the primary swing factors that could still alter these odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएंथ्रॉपिक 74%
गूगल 19%
ओपनएआई 7.6%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 वॉल्यूम
$400,291 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
74%
गूगल
19%
ओपनएआई
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
1%
अलीबाबा
1%
मेटा
1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
एंथ्रॉपिक 74%
गूगल 19%
ओपनएआई 7.6%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 वॉल्यूम
$400,291 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
$14,660 वॉल्यूम
74%
गूगल
$5,606 वॉल्यूम
19%
ओपनएआई
$34,197 वॉल्यूम
8%
xAI
$14,881 वॉल्यूम
3%
DeepSeek
$248,799 वॉल्यूम
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$5,532 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$6,585 वॉल्यूम
1%
मेटा
$4,175 वॉल्यूम
1%
मूनशॉट
$4,912 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Baidu
$4,388 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$9,312 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$34,076 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$5,546 वॉल्यूम
<1%
ByteDance
$4,723 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$2,898 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus places Anthropic as the strong leader for the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, with its 74.5% implied probability reflecting sustained gains in large language model reasoning, coding performance, and safety benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with top competitors. Recent model iterations have delivered measurable improvements in multi-step problem solving and reduced hallucination rates, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic will hold this position through the deadline. Google sits at 18.5% on the strength of Gemini ecosystem integrations and steady capability lifts, while OpenAI at 7.5% faces expectations of only incremental updates ahead of any major release. The next several weeks of benchmark disclosures and developer feedback represent the primary swing factors that could still alter these odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$400,291समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus places Anthropic as the strong leader for the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, with its 74.5% implied probability reflecting sustained gains in large language model reasoning, coding performance, and safety benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with top competitors. Recent model iterations have delivered measurable improvements in multi-step problem solving and reduced hallucination rates, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic will hold this position through the deadline. Google sits at 18.5% on the strength of Gemini ecosystem integrations and steady capability lifts, while OpenAI at 7.5% faces expectations of only incremental updates ahead of any major release. The next several weeks of benchmark disclosures and developer feedback represent the primary swing factors that could still alter these odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$400,291समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus places Anthropic as the strong leader for the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, with its 74.5% implied probability reflecting sustained gains in large language model reasoning, coding performance, and safety benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with top competitors. Recent model iterations have delivered measurable improvements in multi-step problem solving and reduced hallucination rates, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic will hold this position through the deadline. Google sits at 18.5% on the strength of Gemini ecosystem integrations and steady capability lifts, while OpenAI at 7.5% faces expectations of only incremental updates ahead of any major release. The next several weeks of benchmark disclosures and developer feedback represent the primary swing factors that could still alter these odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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