Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has driven the strong trader consensus reflected in the 71 percent market-implied probability, as the model quickly topped several independent benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and overall quality index. Traders appear to view this release as extending Anthropic’s recent streak of monthly leaderboard wins while competitors like Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintain solid reasoning scores but trail in practical deployment metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and xAI’s Grok updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark shifts, keeping their odds in the low single digits. With June resolution still weeks away, market positioning hinges on whether any frontier lab can deliver a surprise upgrade or new capability demonstration before the cutoff that would meaningfully alter the current ranking.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 71.4%
गूगल 21%
ओपनएआई 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,906,194 वॉल्यूम
$5,906,194 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
71%
गूगल
21%
ओपनएआई
6%
xAI
1%
मेटा
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
बाइटडांस
<1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 71.4%
गूगल 21%
ओपनएआई 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,906,194 वॉल्यूम
$5,906,194 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
$834,593 वॉल्यूम
71%
गूगल
$526,670 वॉल्यूम
21%
ओपनएआई
$336,383 वॉल्यूम
6%
xAI
$1,061,448 वॉल्यूम
1%
मेटा
$131,358 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$499,353 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$158,414 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$298,365 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
$477,931 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$151,598 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइटडांस
$155,114 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अलीबाबा
$377,060 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मूनशॉट
$359,622 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$377,559 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Baidu
$160,727 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has driven the strong trader consensus reflected in the 71 percent market-implied probability, as the model quickly topped several independent benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and overall quality index. Traders appear to view this release as extending Anthropic’s recent streak of monthly leaderboard wins while competitors like Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintain solid reasoning scores but trail in practical deployment metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and xAI’s Grok updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark shifts, keeping their odds in the low single digits. With June resolution still weeks away, market positioning hinges on whether any frontier lab can deliver a surprise upgrade or new capability demonstration before the cutoff that would meaningfully alter the current ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,906,194समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has driven the strong trader consensus reflected in the 71 percent market-implied probability, as the model quickly topped several independent benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and overall quality index. Traders appear to view this release as extending Anthropic’s recent streak of monthly leaderboard wins while competitors like Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintain solid reasoning scores but trail in practical deployment metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and xAI’s Grok updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark shifts, keeping their odds in the low single digits. With June resolution still weeks away, market positioning hinges on whether any frontier lab can deliver a surprise upgrade or new capability demonstration before the cutoff that would meaningfully alter the current ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$5,906,194समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April has driven the strong trader consensus reflected in the 71 percent market-implied probability, as the model quickly topped several independent benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and overall quality index. Traders appear to view this release as extending Anthropic’s recent streak of monthly leaderboard wins while competitors like Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintain solid reasoning scores but trail in practical deployment metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and xAI’s Grok updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark shifts, keeping their odds in the low single digits. With June resolution still weeks away, market positioning hinges on whether any frontier lab can deliver a surprise upgrade or new capability demonstration before the cutoff that would meaningfully alter the current ranking.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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