South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with nominee Marty Jackley positioned as the clear favorite against Democrat Nicole Gronli following the June 2026 primaries. Available polling shows Jackley ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s recent history of 30-plus-point Republican margins. Traders appear to price in continued strong GOP performance driven by the state’s partisan lean, low Democratic turnout in off-year cycles, and limited national attention on the race. The spread across margin buckets around 30-35% reflects uncertainty over exact turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the lower price on a Democratic win captures the structural barriers for the challenger. No major developments since the primaries have altered this baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाSD - AL हाउस इलेक्शन मार्जिन ऑफ़ विक्ट्री
SD - AL हाउस इलेक्शन मार्जिन ऑफ़ विक्ट्री
रिपब्लिकन 20-25% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30% 36%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन 40%+
36%
रिपब्लिकन 35-40%
33%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35%
36%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30%
36%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25%
36%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20%
36%
रिपब्लिकन 10-15%
23%
रिपब्लिकन 0-10%
37%
डेमोक्रेट जीतता है
20%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35% 36%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30% 36%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन 40%+
$46 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 35-40%
$34 वॉल्यूम
33%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35%
$34 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30%
$34 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25%
$34 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20%
$29 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 10-15%
$34 वॉल्यूम
23%
रिपब्लिकन 0-10%
$46 वॉल्यूम
37%
डेमोक्रेट जीतता है
$34 वॉल्यूम
20%
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with nominee Marty Jackley positioned as the clear favorite against Democrat Nicole Gronli following the June 2026 primaries. Available polling shows Jackley ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s recent history of 30-plus-point Republican margins. Traders appear to price in continued strong GOP performance driven by the state’s partisan lean, low Democratic turnout in off-year cycles, and limited national attention on the race. The spread across margin buckets around 30-35% reflects uncertainty over exact turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the lower price on a Democratic win captures the structural barriers for the challenger. No major developments since the primaries have altered this baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 11, 2026, 2:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$327समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 11, 2026, 2:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with nominee Marty Jackley positioned as the clear favorite against Democrat Nicole Gronli following the June 2026 primaries. Available polling shows Jackley ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s recent history of 30-plus-point Republican margins. Traders appear to price in continued strong GOP performance driven by the state’s partisan lean, low Democratic turnout in off-year cycles, and limited national attention on the race. The spread across margin buckets around 30-35% reflects uncertainty over exact turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the lower price on a Democratic win captures the structural barriers for the challenger. No major developments since the primaries have altered this baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$327समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 11, 2026, 2:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with nominee Marty Jackley positioned as the clear favorite against Democrat Nicole Gronli following the June 2026 primaries. Available polling shows Jackley ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s recent history of 30-plus-point Republican margins. Traders appear to price in continued strong GOP performance driven by the state’s partisan lean, low Democratic turnout in off-year cycles, and limited national attention on the race. The spread across margin buckets around 30-35% reflects uncertainty over exact turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the lower price on a Democratic win captures the structural barriers for the challenger. No major developments since the primaries have altered this baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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