Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee (87%) over veteran Rep. Al Green (11%), driven by his sustained polling lead in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School survey released May 12 showed Menefee ahead 50%-43% among likely voters, widening from his February 24-point edge and following a close March 3 primary where both incumbents advanced—no candidate exceeded 50%. Menefee, sworn in after winning a 2026 special election to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, benefits from generational appeal against Green's long tenure. A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights but contrasts in experience and early vote attendance. With the May 26 runoff imminent and early voting underway, the solidly Democratic district's winner secures the general election nomination; minor candidates like Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards hold no viable path.