In the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff set for May 26, trader consensus heavily favors Colin Allred at 77% implied probability, reflecting his 45.5% first-place finish in the March 3 primary—11 points ahead of incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson’s 34%—bolstered by superior fundraising with $6.4 million raised and $679,000 cash on hand versus Johnson’s $2.1 million and $487,000. Endorsements from primary rivals Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez further consolidate support for Allred, while Johnson holds backing from House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and EMILYs List. Recent mutual attacks have intensified, with Allred criticizing Johnson’s Palantir stock trades tied to ICE surveillance and Johnson highlighting Allred’s votes for the No Sanctuary Cities Act and Laken Riley Act. Early voting begins May 18 in the heavily Democratic, Latino-majority Dallas County district.