Following the Labour government's heavy losses in the May 2026 local elections, where Reform UK gained ground and support for the Conservatives and Greens shifted, net approval ratings have remained deeply negative around -49. Traders assign a 66 percent probability to an uptick this week amid the absence of new major polls or crises, allowing potential stabilization after initial post-election reactions. Keir Starmer has publicly accepted responsibility without resigning, while internal party pressure continues but has not escalated into immediate leadership votes. This setup leaves room for modest sentiment recovery in the short term, though structural challenges from voter shifts toward Reform and Greens persist.