Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कोई नहीं 57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
33%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
अलीबाबा
1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026 में कोई नहीं 57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
$10,084 वॉल्यूम
57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
$6,982 वॉल्यूम
33%
$7,388 वॉल्यूम
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 वॉल्यूम
3%
xAI
$5,414 वॉल्यूम
2%
अलीबाबा
$4,750 वॉल्यूम
1%
मिस्त्राल
$3,688 वॉल्यूम
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$54,452समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$54,452समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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