**The current 89.5% market-implied probability that The Batman: Part II will not face further delays rests on active principal photography, a stabilized February 18, 2028 release date, and the absence of major production disruptions.** Filming began June 12, 2026, at Warner Bros. Studios Leavesden with location work in London, Liverpool, Glasgow, and other UK sites; recent September 2026 set videos and photos confirm ongoing shoots, including night sequences and a revised Batsuit with longer ears. Director Matt Reeves released camera-test footage alongside the July 2026 date shift, which moved the film from October 1, 2027, primarily to accommodate studio slate reshuffling tied to the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger talks rather than script or VFX crises. Cast updates, such as Sebastian Stan’s early September 2026 comments about “a very long time” and “a long winter” remaining on set, signal an extended but planned production schedule rather than unexpected setbacks. The prior delays (from 2025 through 2027) largely stemmed from pre-production script work and industry strikes; with cameras rolling and post-production time explicitly built into the new window, traders see limited near-term risk of another postponement. Key upcoming signals include any filming-wrap announcements or visual-effects milestones that could either lock in or challenge the current timeline.