The absence of any U.S. announcement or deployment signaling plans for full-scale military occupation has anchored trader expectations that no invasion will occur in 2026. A targeted January operation captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro without establishing territorial control or prolonged ground presence, and subsequent actions have remained limited to maritime interdictions, joint strikes against designated cartels in Ecuador and Colombia, and sanctions pressure on Cuba and others. Administration statements continue to frame regional policy around border security, drug interdiction, and countering external influence rather than regime change through invasion. With half the year elapsed and no escalation toward sustained combat operations in any Latin American nation, the current 77 percent probability on “No” reflects the narrow scope of recent military activity and the absence of conditions that historically precede invasions.