Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities since February 2026, including extensive airstrikes on military targets and a collapsed June Memorandum of Understanding, have centered on degrading Iranian missile, nuclear, and naval capabilities along with sanctions pressure and Strait of Hormuz enforcement rather than ground operations. As of late August, renewed U.S. sanctions campaigns, diplomatic talks via Oman, and targeted strikes continue without large-scale troop deployments aimed at securing Iranian territory. Military analyses highlight prohibitive costs, risks, and limited objectives for any mainland incursion, while market resolution requires U.S. forces to establish control over sovereign land. These factors sustain trader consensus around an 84-85% probability that no invasion occurs before December 31, 2026.