The U.S. and Iran have maintained a fragile ceasefire since early April 2026 following weeks of American and Israeli airstrikes that targeted Iranian nuclear and missile sites, with ongoing negotiations centered on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to a deal while threatening renewed strikes if talks collapse, and Pentagon planning has emphasized naval blockades, targeted raids, and air operations over any large-scale ground campaign. These developments, combined with the high costs and risks of occupying Iranian territory, underpin trader consensus that a U.S. invasion establishing control over any portion of Iran remains unlikely before the end of 2026.