US military planning has centered on potential airstrikes against Iranian targets rather than a full-scale ground invasion, with recent statements from President Trump emphasizing that the conflict is effectively over and major escalation is highly unlikely. Following the November 3 midterms, diplomatic channels mediated by Qatar have advanced amid stalled nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks, while economic sanctions and a naval blockade remain the primary pressure tools. Regional assessments note limited US appetite for regime-change operations absent extreme Iranian provocations, and public comments have shifted focus to domestic priorities and the status quo of sanctions enforcement. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability against an invasion by the end of 2026.