A new Purdue University-backed expedition has just reached Nikumaroro to examine the submerged “Taraia Object” spotted in satellite imagery, marking the latest in decades of fruitless searches for Earhart’s Lockheed Electra. The 17-person team plans only a few days of sonar, magnetometer work, and limited dredging before departing by late October, with any positive identification likely requiring further analysis or a larger 2027 dig. Longstanding expert skepticism—that the shape is probably a fallen tree or rock formation—combined with the short timeline before the December 31, 2026 cutoff and the pattern of prior expeditions yielding no confirmed wreckage, underpins trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for “No.”