Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate, currently near 1,490 following the shift to an inflation-linked crawling band in January 2026, reflects sustained central-bank intervention and fiscal surplus under the Milei administration. Monthly inflation has eased to around 1.9–2.1 percent, supporting a measured depreciation path aligned with recent CPI prints rather than sharp adjustments. Reserve accumulation—bolstered by IMF disbursements, energy and agricultural exports, and reduced capital controls—has narrowed the gap to parallel rates and anchored trader expectations for contained weakening through year-end. Market-implied odds clustering below 1,700 price in continued disinflation toward the 25–30 percent annual range alongside moderate GDP growth of 3–3.5 percent, tempered by external debt service and the risk of renewed volatility if the real exchange rate becomes overvalued ahead of 2027 elections.