The closely matched 43.5% and 38.5% probabilities on sub-1600 and 1600-1699.99 ARS/USD brackets for end-2026 reflect uncertainty around Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band, introduced in January 2026, which expands monthly at the prior period’s inflation rate to support reserve accumulation while containing pass-through. With the official rate near 1,490 as of mid-August and analyst forecasts ranging from roughly 1,400 to 1,760, trader consensus hinges on whether disinflation persists amid debt maturities exceeding $19 billion and reliance on IMF support plus capital inflows. Key swing factors include the pace of BCRA dollar purchases, regulated price adjustments, and any shifts in monetary policy credibility under the current framework.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$21,574 Vol.
$21,574 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
45%
1600.00–1699.99
34%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
5%
1900.00–1999.99
1%
2000.00+
3%
$21,574 Vol.
$21,574 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$2,450 Vol.
45%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,995 Vol.
34%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,198 Vol.
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,626 Vol.
5%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,566 Vol.
1%
2000.00+
$1,740 Vol.
3%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched 43.5% and 38.5% probabilities on sub-1600 and 1600-1699.99 ARS/USD brackets for end-2026 reflect uncertainty around Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band, introduced in January 2026, which expands monthly at the prior period’s inflation rate to support reserve accumulation while containing pass-through. With the official rate near 1,490 as of mid-August and analyst forecasts ranging from roughly 1,400 to 1,760, trader consensus hinges on whether disinflation persists amid debt maturities exceeding $19 billion and reliance on IMF support plus capital inflows. Key swing factors include the pace of BCRA dollar purchases, regulated price adjustments, and any shifts in monetary policy credibility under the current framework.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,574Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched 43.5% and 38.5% probabilities on sub-1600 and 1600-1699.99 ARS/USD brackets for end-2026 reflect uncertainty around Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band, introduced in January 2026, which expands monthly at the prior period’s inflation rate to support reserve accumulation while containing pass-through. With the official rate near 1,490 as of mid-August and analyst forecasts ranging from roughly 1,400 to 1,760, trader consensus hinges on whether disinflation persists amid debt maturities exceeding $19 billion and reliance on IMF support plus capital inflows. Key swing factors include the pace of BCRA dollar purchases, regulated price adjustments, and any shifts in monetary policy credibility under the current framework.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21,574Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched 43.5% and 38.5% probabilities on sub-1600 and 1600-1699.99 ARS/USD brackets for end-2026 reflect uncertainty around Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band, introduced in January 2026, which expands monthly at the prior period’s inflation rate to support reserve accumulation while containing pass-through. With the official rate near 1,490 as of mid-August and analyst forecasts ranging from roughly 1,400 to 1,760, trader consensus hinges on whether disinflation persists amid debt maturities exceeding $19 billion and reliance on IMF support plus capital inflows. Key swing factors include the pace of BCRA dollar purchases, regulated price adjustments, and any shifts in monetary policy credibility under the current framework.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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