Democrat JoAnna Mendoza's victory over incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani produced final unofficial tallies of 52.9% to 44.8%, establishing an 8.1-point margin that aligns directly with the market's dominant 6-9% outcome at 83.5%. Vote counting across Pima, Pinal, and other counties reached 99% reporting by mid-November, with no recount triggered under Arizona thresholds. The result flipped the seat and exceeded pre-election polling averages by roughly six points. Remaining certification steps and any late-absentee adjustments represent the primary outstanding variables that could still shift the precise margin within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.