The Bank of Korea’s October 22 policy decision carries an 78.5% market-implied probability of no change after consecutive 25-basis-point hikes in July and August lifted the base rate to 3.00%. Elevated August CPI at 3.09% year-over-year and core inflation near 3.4% remain well above the 2% target, while upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts near 3.3% reflect robust semiconductor exports and domestic demand. The recent widening of the Korea-U.S. rate differential back to 1 percentage point has intensified won depreciation pressures and complicated the policy calculus, prompting most analysts to favor a pause to gauge lagged effects on household debt and housing prices before any further tightening. The BOK’s September Monetary Policy Report emphasized monitoring inflation persistence and financial stability risks, with the board’s dot plot centering on a 3.25% terminal rate by early 2027. These factors underpin the dominant no-change pricing while leaving modest room for a 25-basis-point hike priced at 19.5% if exchange-rate or price data deteriorate sharply before the meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo Change 79%
25 bps hike 20%
50+ bps hike 2.0%
50+ bps cut <1%
$12,291 Vol.
$12,291 Vol.
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
1%
25 bps cut
1%
No Change
79%
25 bps hike
20%
50+ bps hike
2%
No Change 79%
25 bps hike 20%
50+ bps hike 2.0%
50+ bps cut <1%
$12,291 Vol.
$12,291 Vol.
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
$366 Vol.
1%
25 bps cut
$411 Vol.
1%
No Change
$6,740 Vol.
79%
25 bps hike
$4,413 Vol.
20%
50+ bps hike
$361 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s October 22 policy decision carries an 78.5% market-implied probability of no change after consecutive 25-basis-point hikes in July and August lifted the base rate to 3.00%. Elevated August CPI at 3.09% year-over-year and core inflation near 3.4% remain well above the 2% target, while upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts near 3.3% reflect robust semiconductor exports and domestic demand. The recent widening of the Korea-U.S. rate differential back to 1 percentage point has intensified won depreciation pressures and complicated the policy calculus, prompting most analysts to favor a pause to gauge lagged effects on household debt and housing prices before any further tightening. The BOK’s September Monetary Policy Report emphasized monitoring inflation persistence and financial stability risks, with the board’s dot plot centering on a 3.25% terminal rate by early 2027. These factors underpin the dominant no-change pricing while leaving modest room for a 25-basis-point hike priced at 19.5% if exchange-rate or price data deteriorate sharply before the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$12,291Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s October 22 policy decision carries an 78.5% market-implied probability of no change after consecutive 25-basis-point hikes in July and August lifted the base rate to 3.00%. Elevated August CPI at 3.09% year-over-year and core inflation near 3.4% remain well above the 2% target, while upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts near 3.3% reflect robust semiconductor exports and domestic demand. The recent widening of the Korea-U.S. rate differential back to 1 percentage point has intensified won depreciation pressures and complicated the policy calculus, prompting most analysts to favor a pause to gauge lagged effects on household debt and housing prices before any further tightening. The BOK’s September Monetary Policy Report emphasized monitoring inflation persistence and financial stability risks, with the board’s dot plot centering on a 3.25% terminal rate by early 2027. These factors underpin the dominant no-change pricing while leaving modest room for a 25-basis-point hike priced at 19.5% if exchange-rate or price data deteriorate sharply before the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$12,291Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s October 22 policy decision carries an 78.5% market-implied probability of no change after consecutive 25-basis-point hikes in July and August lifted the base rate to 3.00%. Elevated August CPI at 3.09% year-over-year and core inflation near 3.4% remain well above the 2% target, while upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts near 3.3% reflect robust semiconductor exports and domestic demand. The recent widening of the Korea-U.S. rate differential back to 1 percentage point has intensified won depreciation pressures and complicated the policy calculus, prompting most analysts to favor a pause to gauge lagged effects on household debt and housing prices before any further tightening. The BOK’s September Monetary Policy Report emphasized monitoring inflation persistence and financial stability risks, with the board’s dot plot centering on a 3.25% terminal rate by early 2027. These factors underpin the dominant no-change pricing while leaving modest room for a 25-basis-point hike priced at 19.5% if exchange-rate or price data deteriorate sharply before the meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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